In case you missed it, we want to make sure you saw this piece in the National Review this weekend:
Republicans Are Having a Moment in Deep-Blue New York State
By Joe Burns
The National Review
It’s been over 20 years since a Republican won a statewide race in New York and almost 20 years since that Republican, Governor George Pataki, left office. While the last two decades have been rocky at best for the Empire State GOP, recent events — in particular, the results of the 2024 presidential race in the state — show that Republicans have a chance at a comeback in 2026.
While Donald Trump didn’t win the Empire State’s electoral votes in any of his three runs for the White House, his New York numbers were significantly better in 2024, when he won 44 percent of the vote, than in either 2020, when he won 38 percent, or 2016, when he won 37 percent. As a percentage of the 2024 vote, Trump’s increase in vote share was greater in New York than in any other state. Amazingly, Kamala Harris’s 2024 win in New York was narrower than Trump’s wins in Florida, a swing state as recently as 2016, and in Texas, a state Democrats have long believed was ripe for turning blue.
Trump’s noteworthy performance in the Empire State comes two years after a Republican nearly won the governor’s race. Governor Kathy Hochul, who, as lieutenant governor to Andrew Cuomo, had replaced him when he resigned, faced GOP nominee Lee Zeldin in 2022. In a state where Democrats enjoy a more than two-to-one enrollment advantage, she defeated Zeldin by less than six percentage points, the narrowest win for a Democrat running for New York governor since 1982. Republicans, riding on Zeldin’s coattails, were even able to win an unexpected twelve seats in the U.S. House.
An unusually large number of Trump’s 2024 gains in New York came from the unlikeliest of places: New York City. His electoral performance in his hometown was the best for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. In fact, he saw gains in every borough, while Harris received approximately 500,000 fewer votes than Joe Biden did in the Big Apple in 2020. Trump’s biggest increase came in Queens, the borough where he was born and raised.
Many political pundits would argue that, while Trump’s and Zeldin’s electoral performances were impressive, the Empire State will quickly revert to being a reliably blue, left-of-center, Democratic stronghold. But to those closely following the ups and downs of the New York political scene, the gains made by Trump and Zeldin suggest a more durable shift to the right. Republicans may be able to build on past gains — they even have a real chance to win the 2026 governor’s race.
While New York remains an overwhelmingly Democratic state, Democrats’ voter-enrollment edge has slipped. From 2020 to 2024, Democratic enrollment dropped by approximately 4 percent; over that same period, GOP enrollment increased by approximately 3 percent, while registered voters with no party affiliation increased by 13 percent. The Democrats undeniably maintain a hefty enrollment advantage, but after years of declining Republican enrollment, the trend has reversed.
This all comes as polls consistently show that public approval numbers for Hochul are historically low. In September, a Siena College poll found that only 34 percent of New Yorkers had a favorable view of the governor. By comparison, this same poll found that 39 percent of New Yorkers viewed Donald Trump favorably.
Leading Democrats are starting to panic that having Hochul on the 2026 ticket will spell losses for other New York Democrats. Democratic New York City councilman Chi Osse recently posted on X that Hochul was in danger of losing the 2026 gubernatorial race. Another prominent Democrat, Congressman Ritchie Torres, who represents a Bronx district, has made comments suggesting he might challenge Hochul for the Democratic nomination.
The road ahead isn’t likely to get any smoother for Governor Hochul. She is being heavily criticized for instituting a congestion pricing plan, which amounts to a commuter tax that will hit suburban dwellers who regularly drive into New York City the hardest. Multiple lawsuits have been filed by municipalities outside the city to stop congestion pricing from taking effect. If the lawsuits are not successful, commuters will start paying the tax on January 5, 2025. In suburbs already trending red, anger at Hochul’s tax may well intensify that shift.
Hochul’s political problems don’t end with pocketbook-issue voters in the New York City suburbs. Progressive Democrats have never been fond of Hochul and view her as an upstate centrist. These progressives haven’t forgotten Hochul’s embrace of the National Rifle Association during her tenure in the House representing a center-right district in western New York. Progressives also recall Hochul’s time as Erie County clerk, when she aggressively opposed Governor Eliot Spitzer’s proposal to issue driver’s licenses to illegal aliens.
Because of New York’s system of fusion voting, the Left has a unique opportunity to show its disapproval of insufficiently progressive Democrats. By permitting candidates to run on multiple party lines, New York State allows minor political parties to be something more than spoilers. In fact, under this system, the minor parties often play the role of kingmaker. One of these parties, the left-wing Working Families Party, has long had contempt for Hochul. In the 2022 Democratic primary for governor, the WFP backed Hochul’s progressive challenger; after Hochul won the primary, it grudgingly endorsed her. It’s far from guaranteed that the WFP will back Hochul’s candidacy next time.
While New York has been a solidly Democratic state for a generation, it’s not outlandish to think that this might be coming to an end. Thanks to a variety of factors, New York seems to be on the brink of a Republican renaissance, though to what degree is hard to say. Political observers of all stripes should keep a close eye on the Empire State.
From NationalReview.com
